The job of a broker isn’t to predict the future, it’s to set our clients up for success, despite a variety of possible futures.

This will be the third week in a row on the topic of rates.

Maybe next week I’ll change it up, maybe.

What we know;

If we listened to economists, most predicted a recession way back in early 2022 – it still hasn’t arrived.

They were soon talking rate cuts ‘for sure’ by late 2023 – and yet, these cuts still haven’t arrived.

‘But rates have to come down’

Do they?

They really don’t ‘have’ to do anything specific.

Let’s consider a few key points.

1. Would a hike of even just another 0.25% be a wicked hit to our psyche?

Yes.

Could it still happen?

Yes, but we can mostly agree this isn’t likely.

2. Would a rate drop of even just 0.25% put us all in too good, too spendy, of a mood?

Maybe, probably, yes… let’s go with yes.

We know homebuyers are on the sidelines, ready to pounce, just waiting for a rate cut #1 (believing more will follow fast) – which means prices could ride fast. Buyers are ready to make a move, many of them, soon… at the first sign the party is getting started again.

A 0.25% cut would be seen as that sign.

We know this.

We know.

And guess what…

Tiff knows!

Tiff knows his first cut, even just a 0.25% cut, will move markets massively.

Tiff knows that a 0.25% rate cut in 2024 will move markets as much as a 1% cut would’ve done in say 2016.

And so if you were Tiff, how long would you hold off on that cut?

Until the last possible moment.

That’s when.

Is this moment June 5th?

or maybe July 10th?

Or is it June of 2025, or July of 2026?

Tiff knows.

We do not.

DW